After a couple of down weeks at the box office, it should bounce back this week thanks to the animated Monsters vs. Aliens. All on its own, the new 3-D family movie should outperform last week's top three - all new releases at the time - meaning that we're poised for our second $50 million debut of March.
I have contended for years that the "summer" box office season will be redefined once Hollywood recognizes that hits are hits whenever they hit. Watchmen may not have done enormous business after the opening weekend, but does anyone really think Star Trek wouldn't still make at least $150 million if it came out during spring break rather than a weekend sandwiched between Wolverine and Angels & Demons? And could you look at a movie like Monsters vs. Aliens and really argue that it couldn't play just as well in June as in March?
The one business byproduct of a big debut for Monsters is that the studios will breathe a sigh of relief about 3-D. An expensive process, only three 3-D movies have ever made $100 million, with Bolt the all-time leader at $114 million. Monsters vs. Aliens will enter summer as possibly the biggest moneymaker released in 2009, so worries about the resurgent technology driving audiences away should quiet down considerably. That's a good thing for an industry that has nearly two dozen 3-D movies scheduled for release this year.
