If nothing else, the last weekend before the summer movie season begins is kind of like Punxatawney Phil: It shows us that audiences are more than willing to spend the money, even though the economy is down. A very consistent box office all year, which actually has been markedly improved over 2008, should be a strong bellwether for all those summer blockbuster with $200 and $300 million dreams.
There's no quantifiable reason that Obsessed should make $28 million, although that's the estimate from Box Office Mojo. Beyonce Knowles isn't (or hasn't been) a major movie star, and Ali Larter isn't exactly Reese Witherspoon when it comes to opening weekends. That total is at least $10 million more than the film was expected to generate, and if they'll throw down an extra 35% on this movie, what does that mean for Wolverine or Transformers?
The other new releases did fairly well, too, given their expectations. Fighting hit the mark at over $10 million, The Soloist made about $9 million, and I believe the Disney documentary, Earth, became just the second non-fiction film to ever debut in the top five. Of those, only The Soloist probably had a disappointing weekend, just because this film was once touted as an Oscar contender and after it got bumped to late April, is facing a rather anonymous $25 - $30 million box office ride.
